6/3/2018 0 Comments Back to the future?Anytime I hear people talk about the future I think back to Back to the Future Part 3 (Don't worry, this isn't a spiritual post, I'm getting to the baseball--gimmie a sec here). Jennifer, Marty McFly's girlfriend, who at this point is no longer played by 80's queen Elizabeth Shue, asks Doc Brown why her note from the future has disappeared. Doc Brown responds by telling her that it disappeared because no one's future is written yet. Its whatever you make of it. A great lesson for life sure, especially if you're constructing the New York Mets or the Baltimore Orioles (see, told ya), who start a 3 game set against each other Tuesday. I say this because (as of right now), these two franchises are both screwed. I think the media, who does say this to a point, down plays it. Its borderline embarrassing. But I didn't construct this blog post to tell you that. I wanted to decide who is more screwed than the other. So lets do that:
The New York Mets: Not too long ago, we couldn't hear enough about the amount of prospects Sandy Alderson had at his disposal while replacing Omar Minaya as the front office guy in Queens. It was all Mets fans had really, and they were ready for the future. It looks like a fun run in 2015 and a quick Wild Card exit in 2016 is really all fans are going to get from that though. Their "Dark Knight" is gone, Zack Wheeler is looking more and more like a bust every day, and "Thor" and Jacob DeGrom keep racking up innings before landing on the DL, making them look like trade pieces each day. The Mets' farm, once thought to be amongst the best in the bigs, is now depleted. The Mets have ZERO Top 100 prospects according to MLB.com. Andrew Giminez, thought to be the Mets' top prospect is estimated to be about 2-3 years away from the show. Dominic Smith, the last of the hopeful prospects, is losing confidence from the organization. Michael Conforto, when on the field, is amongst the most overrated players in the game. As for Juan Lagares, Amed Rosario, and Wilmer Flores, none have proven that they are the type of player that can either be built around or be dealt for prospects that will give the Mets a future. Add in a bullpen that is amongst the league's worst, and you have a pretty shotty franchise. No evidence can prove this point more than the Mets' offseason. Remember that no one knew yet just how dirty the Braves and Phils' would prove to be in 2018. The Mets had the money to sign several people AND trade Matt Harvey to the Orioles. They opted to wait for a cheaper Todd Fraizer, who was hitting just .237 before landing on the DL. They also signed Anthony Swarzak who has appeared in just 2 games, and a now way too old Adrian Gonzalez, who many thought was going to retire. Sandy Alderson gambled on having a healthy team, but pretty much the same one as 2017, where they couldn't buy themselves wins after May. And just when you thought everything was bad, its time to talk about ownership, which hasn't committed to investing in winning (pretty much) ever. Unless you count signing over the hill free agents, in which case, you got me there. But even that is an old practice, which most teams dont even do anymore. Why? It no longer works! You're better off investing in the farm, finding young guys who have the major league minimum in salaries and are under control for 5+ years. In fact, no team really banks on the free agent market anymore. Sure, one or two guys to fill a roster spot they definitely need to improve. But thats really it. That is of course, if you're the Baltimore Orioles. #Segways The Baltimore Orioles I guess I could write about how bad the Mets are for days, but even they dont do some of the things that the Baltimore Orioles do. Its important to preface this by saying that you cant blame Dan Duquette. This is a Peter Angelos issue, who refuses to buy into what i just told you about investing the farm. Or, if they do buy into it, they are not buying into it the right way. Take the 2014 O's for example, who were swept in the ALCS by the Royals. The roster was stacked with major league talent, and young guns who you believed would carry the team into the future. Now, just 4 years later, the core group that remains is about to be broken, its only a matter of time. Unlike the Mets however, they have a couple of guys that can start the re-build process. I am of course talking about Manny Machado and Zach Britton. Outside of that though, a mediocre season from Adam Jones wont get too much back, and their pitching is not very good at all. The O's also opted for free agency this past offseason, "winning" the Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner sweepstakes. Congrats on that, really. Then there's Chris Davis, who commands what is quickly becoming the worst contact in baseball. Take Cano and Pujols off the table because at least they produce. The guy cant hit, and he's not much of a 1st Baseman. Not sure how that one will play out as the O's start this process. Its going to be a long process at that, where I think it will take a lot longer than O's fans would want. As for the farm system that could help them build, the O's do have Ryan Mountcastle (MLB #86), within the top 100 to help start the process. But thats really it. If Im Dan Duquette I start taking calls on Machado now and dont wait until the deadline. Let the Cubs overpay for him since they clearly need something to get ahead of the Central. When Zack Britton is ready to go Id start sending vids of bullpen sessions to other GMs to prove he's healthy. The point is that if Dan Duquette is anything less than loud and obnoxious this summer, the Os are in big trouble. There will be too much talent on the free agent market this winter for them to be competitive. And waiting another year will only prove to be worse as most of the traceable assets will be gone by then. Not to mention, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Jays all have quite a few prospects that will help them compete in the coming years. Either switch to the AL Central, or enjoy last place for the next few years, Baltimore. Decision Lets start with the fans of this blog (you can follow us on Instagram for Polls like this @mlbcarve_up .As of right now, 46% of you voted for the Mets, 54% for the O's. This one is a toughie. I think the potential to be great goes to the O's because they have a few starting points. Counterpoint; the Mets could get rid of either Thor and/or Degrom to start over with a few different guys. Still, a healthy Mets team is actually not as bad as we think......but the Phils and Braves though! I think the key here is that the Mets still control most of their guys for now. Even if Dan Duquette trades everyone, he may not get the returns that will have talent he needs over the next few years. Thats the key difference. Add the big bad Yankees and Red Sox to go along with 3-4 potential Wild Card teams each of the next few years and I think O's fans are in a lot more trouble than Mets fans are. Anyone who knows me knows that I love hating on the Mets, but things aren't THAT bad....yet. This was quick post but Im glad I did it. See ya soon! ~J~
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